History has a funny way of repeating itself.
Last season, the Regina Pats opened the Western Hockey League playoffs by disposing of the heavily-favoured Lethbridge Hurricanes.
Now in the Eastern Conference final, the Canes would love to return the favour against the top-ranked team in the Canadian Hockey League.
“They’re deep, they can score, they can move the puck and they have a good goalie. They’re the best team in our league for a reason and it’s going to be a big challenge for us,” Hurricanes head coach Brent Kisio told the media in Lethbridge.
The challenge Lethbridge faces is going to be made substantially harder due to the fact that they finished their seven-game series win over Medicine Hat without five regulars: overage forwards Matt Alfaro and Zak Zborosky, former second overall pick, defenceman Calen Addison, and forwards Zane Franklin and Ryan Vandervlis.
Pats GM/head coach John Paddock isn’t taking anything for granted after the Canes beat Medicine Hat in overtime of Game 7 on the road to advance Tuesday night.
“They’re missing half-a-dozen players and they found a way to win,” Paddock said. “They’re 7-3 in their last 10 playoff games. So I would say that indicates it’s a pretty difficult match.”
The Pats nearly met their match in their second round series against the Swift Current Broncos. The Pats were down 3-1 in the series and 3-1 in Swift Current in Game 6. However, they managed to score four unanswered goals to win Game 6 and then carried the momentum into a 5-1 Game 7 victory at home.
“I think we have to come out and play like we were in those last few games,” said Pats 20-year-old forward Wyatt Sloboshan. “We were hitting everything. Everyone was working their hardest. When we can play physical and get dirty in the front of the net and get those greasy goals, that’s when we play our best. We’re not going to be on the rush all of the time and be able to score every time like that. If we can the way we did in those last few games, we should have a good series.”
The Pats feel like they are battled-tested now after sweeping the Calgary Hitmen in the opening round.
Lethbridge knows that they are battle-tested, having came back from 3-1 down to beat Red Deer in the opening round and playing two Game 7s in the first two rounds.
Without two of their top-five scorers, the Canes have leaned heavily on captain Tyler Wong who has 11 goals and 22 points in 14 playoff games and his line of Giorgio Estephan (19 points in 12 games) and Egor Babenko (18 points in 14 games) to carry the offensive load.
“Estephan and Wong, going into (Game 7 against Medicine Hat), they were on the ice for 13 of the 21 goals Lethbridge had scored in the series. I would say they should be paid attention to,” Paddock said.
Dylan Cozens won’t be a rookie until next season, but the AP has two goals and five points in seven playoff games for the Canes.
The Pats, of course, did not advance to the conference final unscathed either. Their captain Adam Brooks left in the first period of Game 2 with an apparent knee injury.
He dressed for the final three games of the series against Swift Current, but didn’t play a shift. Whether Brooks can contribute or not, the 20-year-old does add a presence to the Pats bench.
Brooks has been healthy enough to take the pre-game skate, but whether how close he is to returning to help his team is open to speculation.
The Pats have been lead by Sam Steel who has seven goals and 19 points this post-season while defenceman Connor Hobbs has 13 assists and three goals. Austin Wagner had three mult-goal games in the series against Swift Current and Dawson Leedahl has eight goals and 15 points in 11 playoff games.
As potent as the Pats attack has been this season, Canes captain Tyler Wong is certainly not afraid of the league’s best offence.
“I think we have a lot of firepower too. I think they’re going to have the same trouble. Med Hat had a lot of big goal-scores and we did a great job of handling them,” Wong said.
Wong penchant for open-ice hits led to some sparring in the media between Paddock and Lethbridge GM Peter Anholt where each accused the other’s team of taking liberties with the way they body check their opponents.
They may have only played each other four times this season, but there certainly seems to be some residual bad blood remaining from last year’s opening round match-up
Here are some key numbers from Regina and Lethbridge’s season series:
| Lethbridge | vs. | Regina |
| 2-2-0-0 | Record | 2-1-1-0 |
| 11 | Goals For | 18 |
| 18 | Goals Against | 11 |
| 118 | Shots For | 176 |
| 176 | Shots Against | 118 |
|
3 for 26 (11.5%) |
Power Play |
1 for 12 (8.3%) |
|
11 of 12 (91.7%) |
Penalty Kill |
23 of 26 (88.5%) |
| 2 | Fights | 2 |
NHL Drafted Players:
Regina: Sergey Zborovskiy (NYR ’15), Austin Wagner (LA ’15), Filip Ahl (OTT ’15), Connor Hobbs (WSH ’15), Sam Steel (ANA ’16), Josh Mahura (ANA’16), Adam Brooks (TOR ’16).
Lethbridge: Giorgio Estephan (BUF ’15).
Keys to Win:
Lethbridge needs their top line to not only help carry the offensive load, but also do a job defensively against some of the biggest attacking threats in the WHL. It is a lot to ask, but they were able to get the job done against the explosive Medicine Hat Tigers.
Stuart Skinner can absolutely steal a game, but has given up four goals in half of his starts this post-season. He was pulled in both regular season losses to the Pats this year and made 42 saves in each of their wins. The Canes goalie needs to be a difference-maker in the series.
Lethbridge had twice as many power play chances as the Pats did in their regular season meetings and they limited the potent Pats PP to one goal. Winning the special teams battle would certainly help Lethbridge’s hopes for an upset.
The Regina Pats had to fight through a physical and defnesively-sound Swift Current team. When the chips were down, they found a way to beat Jordan Papirny and persevere. They will need to play the same to overcome Lethbridge and it would be in their best interests to start the series the way they way they finished the previous one.
If the Pats can neutralize the Hurricanes’ top line that would be massive, but even if Estephan, Wong and Babenko get their goals, the Pats’ forward depth needs to make a big contribution against the depleted Lethbridge forward corps.
Injuries:
Regina: D Dawson Davidson was injured in Game 7 against Swift Current and according to Greg Harder from the Regina Leader-Post, Davidson is out for the series. Jonathan Smart has been playing as a forward and is likely to drop back to his regular spot on the defence. C Adam Brooks is likely to continue to dress after suffering a knee injury, but whether he will take a shift if anyone’s guess. C Jake Leschyshyn is out for the season after undergoing knee surgery.
Lethbridge: C Matt Alfaro did not play in the second round, while RW Zak Zborosky was injured in Game 1. C Zane Franklin has been out for five straight games. C Ryan Vandervlis and D Calen Addison missed the final two games of the Medicine Hat series, though Addison has missed six playoff games.
Pick:
Pats in six games.
